Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2010 at 09:25 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–46%.

Safest bet that day AA 2010 MIA 09:25 → LAS 11:41 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest F9 4551 MIA 22:15 → LAS 00:22 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2010 American Flight history →	MIA 09:25	LAS 11:41	18%	6%	0.8%	93%worse than usual
AA 3076 American Flight history →	MIA 21:50	LAS 23:59	35%	11%	1.3%	63%
AA 3236 American Flight history →	MIA 17:29	LAS 19:46	35%	14%	1.2%	61%
AA 2025 American Flight history →	MIA 20:26	LAS 22:35	37%	13%	1.6%	49%
F9 4551 Frontier Flight history →	MIA 22:15	LAS 00:22	46%	20%	1.5%	66%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	MIA 08:48 → IAH 10:42UA 2417	1h 13m Houston	IAH 11:55 → LAS 13:13UA 1524	7h 25m	95%	81%
American Details →	MIA 07:35 → PHX 09:19AA 1061	1h 05m Phoenix	PHX 10:24 → LAS 11:37AA 2037	7h 02m	88%	70%
American Details →	MIA 10:05 → DFW 12:17AA 3081	1h 23m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:40 → LAS 14:28AA 2376	7h 23m	90%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON