Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 713 at 07:07 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–36%.

Safest bet that day AA 713 MIA 07:07 → LAX 09:34 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 315 MIA 16:00 → LAX 18:27 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 713 American Flight history →	MIA 07:07	LAX 09:34	14%	4%	0.8%	89%
AA 3288 American Flight history →	MIA 09:55	LAX 12:24	16%	5%	0.8%	86%
AA 843 American Flight history →	MIA 08:35	LAX 11:02	16%	5%	0.9%	90%
DL 450 Delta Flight history →	MIA 19:17	LAX 21:49	27%	11%	1.1%	84%worse than usual
AA 778 American Flight history →	MIA 14:25	LAX 16:52	31%	16%	3.9%	68%
AA 669 American Flight history →	MIA 22:20	LAX 00:48	32%	13%	0.8%	56%
AA 2953 American Flight history →	MIA 17:30	LAX 19:58	33%	14%	0.9%	57%
AA 3328 American Flight history →	MIA 20:10	LAX 22:41	35%	14%	1.1%	64%
AA 315 American Flight history →	MIA 16:00	LAX 18:27	36%	14%	1.0%	74%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	MIA 06:30 → IAH 08:24UA 2606	1h 29m Houston	IAH 09:53 → LAX 11:30UA 469	8h 00m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249	1h 14m Atlanta	ATL 09:15 → LAX 10:45DL 827	7h 45m	96%	83%
Delta Details →	MIA 08:20 → ATL 10:20DL 1261	1h 15m Atlanta	ATL 11:35 → LAX 13:05DL 326	7h 45m	94%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON