Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 2387 at 06:25 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–40%.

Safest bet that day DL 2387 MIA 06:25 → LGA 09:24 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 952 MIA 16:25 → LGA 19:29 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2387 Delta Flight history →	MIA 06:25	LGA 09:24	7%	2%	1.1%	87%
AA 3205 American Flight history →	MIA 06:56	LGA 09:59	11%	3%	1.1%	90%
DL 2339 Delta Flight history →	MIA 08:15	LGA 11:16	12%	3%	1.1%	76%
AA 1046 American Flight history →	MIA 08:40	LGA 11:43	16%	4%	1.1%	77%
AA 3256 American Flight history →	MIA 09:56	LGA 12:59	19%	4%	1.1%	80%
DL 2346 Delta Flight history →	MIA 11:29	LGA 14:34	19%	8%	1.3%	70%
AA 3229 American Flight history →	MIA 12:51	LGA 16:00	30%	11%	2.1%	47%
DL 1538 Delta Flight history →	MIA 15:29	LGA 18:45	32%	12%	2.2%	72%
DL 2300 Delta Flight history →	MIA 19:40	LGA 22:59	32%	13%	1.8%	57%
AA 2054 American Flight history →	MIA 19:00	LGA 22:05	35%	12%	1.6%	42%
AA 1389 American Flight history →	MIA 20:40	LGA 23:44	36%	10%	1.8%	58%
AA 2945 American Flight history →	MIA 15:22	LGA 18:29	37%	14%	2.9%	48%
AA 716 American Flight history →	MIA 14:22	LGA 17:29	37%	15%	2.7%	54%
AA 3128 American Flight history →	MIA 17:50	LGA 20:58	39%	12%	1.7%	38%
AA 952 American Flight history →	MIA 16:25	LGA 19:29	40%	14%	1.6%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON