Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 3939 at 14:48 is the safest bet, 26% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 32–40%.

Safest bet that day AA 3939 MIA 14:48 → MCI 17:23 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest WN 4925 MIA 15:30 → MCI 17:50 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 46% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3939 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MIA 14:48	MCI 17:23	26%	8%	5.1%	91%worse than usual
AA 670 American Flight history →	MIA 21:45	MCI 23:59	32%	9%	1.3%	64%
WN 4925 Southwest Flight history →	MIA 15:30	MCI 17:50	40%	15%	4.3%	46%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON