Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4086 at 05:25 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 34–39%.

Safest bet that day WN 4086 MIA 05:25 → MCO 06:30 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AA 2072 MIA 16:29 → MCO 17:52 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 52% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4086 Southwest Flight history →	MIA 05:25	MCO 06:30	7%	2%	0.8%	96%
AA 2090 American Flight history →	MIA 07:35	MCO 08:50	9%	4%	12.0%	90%
AA 1712 American Flight history →	MIA 09:06	MCO 10:22	14%	5%	13.4%	88%
AA 2092 American Flight history →	MIA 13:40	MCO 14:59	30%	14%	21.0%	69%
AA 1813 American Flight history →	MIA 22:49	MCO 23:59	34%	11%	17.0%	50%
AA 1700 American Flight history →	MIA 20:50	MCO 22:08	36%	13%	17.4%	56%
AA 2147 American Flight history →	MIA 17:34	MCO 18:58	37%	14%	17.7%	61%
AA 2803 American Flight history →	MIA 18:41	MCO 20:01	38%	14%	17.7%	60%
AA 2072 American Flight history →	MIA 16:29	MCO 17:52	39%	16%	18.4%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON