Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 2930 at 14:50, with a 42% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2930 Southwest Flight history →	MIA 14:50	MDW 17:00	42%	13%	3.3%	54%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249	2h 59m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → MDW 11:56DL 2417	6h 56m	99%	87%
Southwest Details →	MIA 07:15 → STL 09:05WN 2931	3h 35m St Louis	STL 12:40 → MDW 13:45WN 3344	7h 30m	100%	85%
Southwest Details →	MIA 06:20 → BWI 08:55WN 974	3h 35m Baltimore	BWI 12:30 → MDW 13:30WN 435	8h 10m	100%	83%
Southwest Details →	MIA 05:10 → HOU 06:45WN 2927	1h 25m Houston	HOU 08:10 → MDW 10:40WN 1294	6h 30m	94%	82%
Southwest Details →	MIA 05:25 → MCO 06:30WN 4086	55m Orlando	MCO 07:25 → MDW 09:15WN 2654	4h 50m	87%	79%
Delta Details →	MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836	2h 27m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → MDW 16:15DL 1728	6h 35m	97%	79%
Southwest Details →	MIA 11:40 → BNA 13:00WN 2922	3h 15m Nashville	BNA 16:15 → MDW 17:50WN 2241	7h 10m	100%	78%
Delta Details →	MIA 16:00 → ATL 18:25DL 1579	2h 50m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076	7h 15m	95%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MIA 18:00 → ATL 20:14DL 1386	1h 01m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076	5h 15m	71%	56%
Frontier Details →	MIA 17:28 → ATL 20:00F9 4405	59m Atlanta	ATL 20:59 → MDW 22:03F9 2291	5h 35m	56%	38%
Southwest Details →	MIA 17:00 → DAL 19:00WN 1374	50m Dallas	DAL 19:50 → MDW 22:05WN 107	6h 05m	30%	20%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON