tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 1551 at 22:28, with a 36% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 1551 American Flight history → MIA 22:28 MEM 23:55 36% 11% 1.5% 57%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 1 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MIA 07:10 → ATL 09:10DL 1211 3h 05m Atlanta ATL 12:15 → MEM 12:32DL 2778 6h 22m 99% 87%
SouthwestDetails → MIA 05:10 → HOU 06:45WN 2927 2h 40m Houston HOU 09:25 → MEM 10:55WN 4013 6h 45m 97% 86%
UnitedDetails → MIA 06:30 → IAH 08:24UA 2606 3h 31m Houston IAH 11:55 → MEM 13:41UA 5758 · flown by SkyWest 8h 11m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249 1h 09m Atlanta ATL 09:10 → MEM 09:27DL 2071 4h 27m 95% 84%
AmericanDetails → MIA 07:00 → DFW 09:19AA 2575 3h 18m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:37 → MEM 14:16AA 3676 · flown by Envoy 8h 16m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → MIA 08:20 → ATL 10:20DL 1261 3h 20m Atlanta ATL 13:40 → MEM 13:57DL 1681 6h 37m 99% 83%
AmericanDetails → MIA 06:40 → ORD 09:08AA 581 3h 07m Chicago ORD 12:15 → MEM 14:04AA 3675 · flown by Envoy 8h 24m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → MIA 14:42 → MSP 17:40DL 2129 2h 25m Minneapolis MSP 20:05 → MEM 22:15DL 4035 · flown by SkyWest 8h 33m 97% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MIA 16:25 → LGA 19:29AA 952 48m New York LGA 20:17 → MEM 22:11AA 4696 · flown by Republic 6h 46m 50% 36%
AmericanDetails → MIA 16:39 → DFW 19:04AA 2823 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:55 → MEM 21:27AA 3262 5h 48m 53% 34%
AmericanDetails → MIA 19:30 → DFW 21:45AA 3104 46m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:31 → MEM 00:04 +1AA 1646 5h 34m 53% 34%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON