Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2168 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–39%.

Safest bet that day AA 2168 MIA 08:00 → MSY 09:18 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest AA 2196 MIA 20:15 → MSY 21:21 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2168 American Flight history →	MIA 08:00	MSY 09:18	10%	5%	1.0%	97%
AA 2552 American Flight history →	MIA 23:05	MSY 00:09	28%	12%	2.8%	64%
AA 2201 American Flight history →	MIA 17:07	MSY 18:17	35%	13%	2.0%	50%
AA 2196 American Flight history →	MIA 20:15	MSY 21:21	39%	15%	4.1%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON