tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 3680 at 21:12, with a 25% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 3680 American flown by Envoy Flight history → MIA 21:12 OKC 23:34 25% 7% 1.0% 83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oklahoma City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oklahoma City is 1 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → MIA 05:25 → DFW 07:40AA 1226 3h 09m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:49 → OKC 11:56AA 3731 · flown by Envoy 7h 31m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249 3h 04m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → OKC 12:12DL 2020 7h 12m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → MIA 08:48 → IAH 10:42UA 2417 3h 53m Houston IAH 14:35 → OKC 16:15UA 6189 · flown by Mesa 8h 27m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → MIA 06:30 → IAH 08:24UA 2606 1h 22m Houston IAH 09:46 → OKC 11:22UA 4344 · flown by CommuteAir 5h 52m 100% 84%
AmericanDetails → MIA 06:21 → CLT 08:35AA 2187 2h 46m Charlotte CLT 11:21 → OKC 13:05AA 2220 7h 44m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → MIA 07:37 → DEN 10:00UA 2045 3h 25m Denver DEN 13:25 → OKC 16:15UA 5808 · flown by SkyWest 9h 38m 99% 82%
AmericanDetails → MIA 06:56 → LGA 09:59AA 3205 3h 38m New York LGA 13:37 → OKC 16:23AA 4470 · flown by Republic 10h 27m 99% 82%
AmericanDetails → MIA 09:00 → DFW 11:12AA 1227 3h 52m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:04 → OKC 16:08AA 3730 · flown by Envoy 8h 08m 100% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MIA 14:29 → DFW 16:51AA 2762 49m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:40 → OKC 18:45AA 3729 · flown by Envoy 5h 16m 64% 49%
UnitedDetails → MIA 16:10 → ORD 18:53UA 2106 52m Chicago ORD 19:45 → OKC 22:17UA 5392 · flown by SkyWest 7h 07m 62% 48%
SouthwestDetails → MIA 16:20 → DEN 18:40WN 2926 1h 25m Denver DEN 20:05 → OKC 22:45WN 175 7h 25m 60% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON