tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 06:55, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Ontario on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 59% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 3 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:55 → SLC 09:56DL 2021 1h 25m Salt Lake City SLC 11:21 → ONT 12:10DL 3172 8h 15m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249 1h 20m Atlanta ATL 09:21 → ONT 10:38DL 665 7h 38m 96% 83%
UnitedDetails → MIA 07:37 → DEN 10:00UA 2045 1h 25m Denver DEN 11:25 → ONT 12:47UA 430 8h 10m 96% 82%
SouthwestDetails → MIA 05:10 → HOU 06:45WN 2927 1h 00m Houston HOU 07:45 → ONT 08:55WN 4391 6h 45m 91% 80%
AmericanDetails → MIA 07:35 → PHX 09:19AA 1061 1h 26m Phoenix PHX 10:45 → ONT 12:02AA 2244 7h 27m 92% 76%
AmericanDetails → MIA 05:25 → DFW 07:40AA 1226 3h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:40 → ONT 11:45AA 2242 9h 20m 99% 76%
AmericanDetails → MIA 07:00 → DFW 09:19AA 2575 3h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:20 → ONT 13:22AA 2239 9h 22m 99% 74%
DeltaDetails → MIA 12:02 → ATL 14:05DL 1510 3h 00m Atlanta ATL 17:05 → ONT 18:30DL 2891 9h 28m 98% 71%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → MIA 11:40 → BNA 13:00WN 2922 55m Nashville BNA 13:55 → ONT 16:00WN 855 7h 20m 64% 51%
DeltaDetails → MIA 14:09 → ATL 16:13DL 1332 52m Atlanta ATL 17:05 → ONT 18:30DL 2891 7h 21m 61% 44%
SouthwestDetails → MIA 17:00 → AUS 19:05WN 336 1h 05m Austin AUS 20:10 → ONT 21:05WN 372 7h 05m 59% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON