Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 581 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 581 MIA 06:40 → ORD 09:08 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest UA 2311 MIA 17:32 → ORD 20:13 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 34% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 581 American Flight history →	MIA 06:40	ORD 09:08	7%	3%	0.9%	87%
AA 1431 American Flight history →	MIA 08:28	ORD 10:59	10%	4%	1.0%	90%
UA 1983 United Flight history →	MIA 12:30	ORD 15:13	19%	8%	1.5%	82%
AA 2910 American Flight history →	MIA 12:22	ORD 14:58	21%	12%	2.0%	73%
AA 2323 American Flight history →	MIA 21:50	ORD 00:26	22%	8%	1.3%	63%
AA 1881 American Flight history →	MIA 20:54	ORD 23:30	28%	10%	1.5%	53%
AA 2247 American Flight history →	MIA 14:37	ORD 17:18	29%	14%	3.5%	67%
AA 3304 American Flight history →	MIA 19:21	ORD 22:01	29%	11%	1.3%	49%
AA 3056 American Flight history →	MIA 17:00	ORD 19:53	30%	11%	1.1%	60%
UA 2106 United Flight history →	MIA 16:10	ORD 18:53	31%	11%	0.9%	59%
UA 2311 United Flight history →	MIA 17:32	ORD 20:13	33%	10%	0.8%	34%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249	1h 01m Atlanta	ATL 09:02 → ORD 10:10DL 1147	5h 10m	94%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON