tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 26–32% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 775 American Flight history → MIA 21:14 ORF 23:37 26% 10% 1.3% 67%
AA 880 American Flight history → MIA 16:51 ORF 19:19 32% 12% 1.8% 65%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Norfolk on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → MIA 06:20 → BWI 08:55WN 974 1h 45m Baltimore BWI 10:40 → ORF 11:40WN 1070 5h 20m 98% 88%
AmericanDetails → MIA 08:22 → JFK 11:30AA 1051 4h 00m New York JFK 15:30 → ORF 17:09AA 4359 · flown by Republic 8h 47m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249 1h 45m Atlanta ATL 09:46 → ORF 11:28DL 2755 5h 28m 97% 87%
AmericanDetails → MIA 09:15 → PHL 12:10AA 551 3h 22m Philadelphia PHL 15:32 → ORF 16:52AA 4749 · flown by Republic 7h 37m 97% 84%
DeltaDetails → MIA 07:10 → ATL 09:10DL 1211 1h 55m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → ORF 12:45DL 2925 5h 35m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → MIA 11:25 → JFK 14:31DL 1520 1h 29m New York JFK 16:00 → ORF 17:56DL 5856 · flown by Republic 6h 31m 95% 83%
UnitedDetails → MIA 08:48 → EWR 11:54UA 408 3h 36m Newark EWR 15:30 → ORF 17:03UA 3603 · flown by Republic 8h 15m 99% 82%
AmericanDetails → MIA 06:21 → CLT 08:35AA 2187 4h 00m Charlotte CLT 12:35 → ORF 13:49AA 2255 7h 28m 99% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → MIA 14:09 → ATL 16:13DL 1332 54m Atlanta ATL 17:07 → ORF 18:54DL 1346 4h 45m 64% 49%
AmericanDetails → MIA 16:25 → LGA 19:29AA 952 1h 00m New York LGA 20:29 → ORF 22:04AA 4589 · flown by Republic 5h 39m 60% 46%
SouthwestDetails → MIA 18:50 → BWI 21:30WN 1624 1h 05m Baltimore BWI 22:35 → ORF 23:40WN 1040 4h 50m 63% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON