Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2129 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–35%.

Safest bet that day AA 2129 MIA 06:45 → PHL 09:38 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest F9 1204 MIA 21:21 → PHL 00:27 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2129 American Flight history →	MIA 06:45	PHL 09:38	7%	3%	0.9%	92%
AA 2328 American Flight history →	MIA 07:45	PHL 10:43	8%	4%	0.9%	96%
AA 551 American Flight history →	MIA 09:15	PHL 12:10	12%	4%	1.0%	86%
AA 2188 American Flight history →	MIA 22:04	PHL 00:55	23%	9%	1.4%	76%
AA 3061 American Flight history →	MIA 19:55	PHL 22:53	28%	12%	1.5%	70%
AA 797 American Flight history →	MIA 15:00	PHL 17:57	29%	16%	2.7%	55%
AA 1684 American Flight history →	MIA 13:45	PHL 16:43	29%	13%	2.7%	75%
AA 1349 American Flight history →	MIA 18:25	PHL 21:20	29%	13%	1.5%	56%
AA 1871 American Flight history →	MIA 16:45	PHL 19:41	31%	15%	1.5%	65%
F9 1204 Frontier Flight history →	MIA 21:21	PHL 00:27	35%	18%	1.9%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON