Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 1061 at 07:35 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–30%.

Safest bet that day AA 1061 MIA 07:35 → PHX 09:19 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AA 896 MIA 13:40 → PHX 15:24 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1061 American Flight history →	MIA 07:35	PHX 09:19	13%	4%	0.8%	86%
AA 3172 American Flight history →	MIA 10:49	PHX 12:35	22%	7%	1.0%	77%
AA 2982 American Flight history →	MIA 17:40	PHX 19:28	29%	13%	1.0%	65%
AA 1968 American Flight history →	MIA 21:05	PHX 22:47	30%	10%	1.2%	76%
AA 896 American Flight history →	MIA 13:40	PHX 15:24	32%	15%	4.0%	75%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


American Details →	MIA 09:00 → DFW 11:12AA 1227	1h 21m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:33 → PHX 13:00AA 1685	7h 00m	93%	71%
Delta Details →	MIA 08:20 → ATL 10:20DL 1261	50m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → PHX 12:03DL 796	6h 43m	83%	70%
American Details →	MIA 10:05 → DFW 12:17AA 3081	1h 23m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:40 → PHX 14:08AA 2113	7h 03m	90%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON