tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 29–33% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 834 American Flight history → MIA 14:12 PIT 17:01 29% 19% 3.6% 66%
AA 1702 American Flight history → MIA 20:59 PIT 23:48 33% 15% 1.3% 72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pittsburgh on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → MIA 08:22 → JFK 11:30AA 1051 3h 05m New York JFK 14:35 → PIT 16:22AA 4734 · flown by Republic 8h 00m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249 3h 09m Atlanta ATL 11:10 → PIT 12:52DL 1345 6h 52m 99% 88%
SouthwestDetails → MIA 06:20 → BWI 08:55WN 974 1h 45m Baltimore BWI 10:40 → PIT 11:45WN 1052 5h 25m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → MIA 08:20 → ATL 10:20DL 1261 3h 48m Atlanta ATL 14:08 → PIT 15:50DL 1353 7h 30m 99% 87%
SouthwestDetails → MIA 05:25 → MCO 06:30WN 4086 1h 00m Orlando MCO 07:30 → PIT 09:50WN 4309 4h 25m 93% 87%
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:25 → LGA 09:24DL 2387 3h 46m New York LGA 13:10 → PIT 14:47DL 5715 · flown by Republic 8h 22m 100% 86%
SouthwestDetails → MIA 07:15 → STL 09:05WN 2931 1h 00m St Louis STL 10:05 → PIT 12:40WN 3971 5h 25m 93% 85%
AmericanDetails → MIA 06:56 → LGA 09:59AA 3205 3h 30m New York LGA 13:29 → PIT 15:04AA 4479 · flown by Republic 8h 08m 99% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MIA 16:25 → LGA 19:29AA 952 1h 00m New York LGA 20:29 → PIT 22:11AA 4410 · flown by Republic 5h 46m 60% 47%
AmericanDetails → MIA 13:45 → PHL 16:43AA 1684 57m Philadelphia PHL 17:40 → PIT 19:12AA 6092 · flown by Piedmont 5h 27m 68% 41%
SouthwestDetails → MIA 18:50 → BWI 21:30WN 1624 55m Baltimore BWI 22:25 → PIT 23:35WN 4164 4h 45m 54% 38%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON