Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 22–23% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4109 MIA 23:08 → PNS 23:59 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest AA 3749 MIA 15:31 → PNS 16:34 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4109 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MIA 23:08	PNS 23:59	22%	4%	1.2%	83%
AA 3743 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MIA 17:51	PNS 18:48	22%	5%	1.1%	79%
AA 3749 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MIA 15:31	PNS 16:34	23%	6%	4.9%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON