Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2405 at 08:05 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 2405 MIA 08:05 → RDU 10:20 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest F9 3322 MIA 14:56 → RDU 17:14 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2405 American Flight history →	MIA 08:05	RDU 10:20	11%	5%	1.0%	92%
DL 2992 Delta Flight history →	MIA 18:28	RDU 20:53	29%	14%	1.5%	65%
AA 1566 American Flight history →	MIA 19:00	RDU 21:17	31%	13%	1.3%	69%
AA 1286 American Flight history →	MIA 21:47	RDU 23:59	31%	11%	1.3%	62%
AA 3474 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MIA 20:49	RDU 23:07	31%	9%	1.6%	54%
AA 2406 American Flight history →	MIA 14:34	RDU 16:50	33%	18%	4.8%	61%
AA 2375 American Flight history →	MIA 16:47	RDU 19:06	33%	16%	1.5%	46%
F9 3322 Frontier Flight history →	MIA 14:56	RDU 17:14	35%	21%	4.9%	76%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON