tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 34–36% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 983 American Flight history → MIA 21:09 RIC 23:37 34% 9% 1.3% 72%
AA 2939 American Flight history → MIA 15:16 RIC 17:45 36% 13% 4.2% 55%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Richmond on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249 2h 14m Atlanta ATL 10:15 → RIC 11:56DL 2650 5h 56m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → MIA 07:10 → ATL 09:10DL 1211 3h 20m Atlanta ATL 12:30 → RIC 14:05DL 1437 6h 55m 99% 88%
AmericanDetails → MIA 06:45 → PHL 09:38AA 2129 3h 34m Philadelphia PHL 13:12 → RIC 14:35AA 5843 · flown by Piedmont 7h 50m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → MIA 08:48 → EWR 11:54UA 408 2h 56m Newark EWR 14:50 → RIC 16:27UA 3610 · flown by Republic 7h 39m 98% 85%
SouthwestDetails → MIA 06:20 → BWI 08:55WN 974 1h 05m Baltimore BWI 10:00 → RIC 10:55WN 705 4h 35m 94% 85%
UnitedDetails → MIA 08:48 → IAH 10:42UA 2417 1h 21m Houston IAH 12:03 → RIC 16:11UA 4057 · flown by Mesa 7h 23m 95% 83%
DeltaDetails → MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836 1h 58m Atlanta ATL 14:46 → RIC 16:23DL 1214 5h 43m 96% 82%
AmericanDetails → MIA 06:21 → CLT 08:35AA 2187 2h 35m Charlotte CLT 11:10 → RIC 12:32AA 5368 · flown by PSA 6h 11m 98% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → MIA 14:09 → ATL 16:13DL 1332 59m Atlanta ATL 17:12 → RIC 18:53DL 1348 4h 44m 68% 55%
SouthwestDetails → MIA 11:40 → BNA 13:00WN 2922 50m Nashville BNA 13:50 → RIC 16:30WN 4530 4h 50m 59% 49%
AmericanDetails → MIA 16:45 → PHL 19:41AA 1871 50m Philadelphia PHL 20:31 → RIC 21:56AA 5964 · flown by Piedmont 5h 11m 63% 40%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON