tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via Bush, leaving 06:30, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching San Diego on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 65% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 2979 American Flight history → MIA 08:50 SAN 11:12 20% 6% 1.0% 87%
AA 2463 American Flight history → MIA 20:12 SAN 22:38 38% 12% 1.7% 44%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 3 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:35 → MSP 09:25DL 1056 2h 13m Minneapolis MSP 11:38 → SAN 13:24DL 2125 9h 49m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249 3h 49m Atlanta ATL 11:50 → SAN 13:08DL 540 10h 08m 99% 82%
UnitedDetails → MIA 06:30 → IAH 08:24UA 2606 1h 06m Houston IAH 09:30 → SAN 10:51UA 2491 7h 21m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:55 → SLC 09:56DL 2021 1h 14m Salt Lake City SLC 11:10 → SAN 12:08DL 1296 8h 13m 96% 78%
DeltaDetails → MIA 07:10 → ATL 09:10DL 1211 1h 05m Atlanta ATL 10:15 → SAN 11:34DL 712 7h 24m 94% 77%
UnitedDetails → MIA 08:48 → IAH 10:42UA 2417 1h 18m Houston IAH 12:00 → SAN 13:21UA 2399 7h 33m 95% 77%
DeltaDetails → MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836 2h 48m Atlanta ATL 15:36 → SAN 17:00DL 843 9h 20m 97% 76%
AmericanDetails → MIA 06:21 → CLT 08:35AA 2187 2h 40m Charlotte CLT 11:15 → SAN 13:05AA 466 9h 44m 98% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MIA 18:35 → SFO 21:41UA 2810 1h 01m San Francisco SFO 22:42 → SAN 00:31 +1UA 2142 8h 56m 65% 47%
UnitedDetails → MIA 15:44 → DEN 18:23UA 2852 57m Denver DEN 19:20 → SAN 20:46UA 540 8h 02m 66% 46%
AmericanDetails → MIA 17:40 → PHX 19:28AA 2982 52m Phoenix PHX 20:20 → SAN 21:34AA 559 6h 54m 65% 41%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON