tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Southwest via MCO, leaving 05:25, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching San Antonio on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 45% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 1468 American Flight history → MIA 21:52 SAT 23:59 36% 10% 1.2% 68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Antonio is 1 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → MIA 06:30 → IAH 08:24UA 2606 1h 15m Houston IAH 09:39 → SAT 10:46UA 6201 · flown by Mesa 5h 16m 100% 88%
SouthwestDetails → MIA 05:10 → HOU 06:45WN 2927 2h 40m Houston HOU 09:25 → SAT 10:25WN 1432 6h 15m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249 1h 45m Atlanta ATL 09:46 → SAT 11:09DL 1121 6h 09m 97% 86%
AmericanDetails → MIA 05:25 → DFW 07:40AA 1226 3h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:40 → SAT 11:52AA 3778 · flown by Envoy 7h 27m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → MIA 07:10 → ATL 09:10DL 1211 3h 05m Atlanta ATL 12:15 → SAT 13:38DL 1408 7h 28m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → MIA 07:07 → EWR 10:11UA 1864 2h 09m Newark EWR 12:20 → SAT 15:21UA 515 9h 14m 98% 85%
AmericanDetails → MIA 07:00 → DFW 09:19AA 2575 2h 42m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:01 → SAT 13:11AA 4084 · flown by Envoy 7h 11m 99% 84%
UnitedDetails → MIA 08:48 → IAH 10:42UA 2417 3h 49m Houston IAH 14:31 → SAT 15:39UA 1819 7h 51m 100% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → MIA 16:20 → DEN 18:40WN 2926 1h 10m Denver DEN 19:50 → SAT 23:10WN 2073 7h 50m 55% 38%
AmericanDetails → MIA 16:39 → DFW 19:04AA 2823 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:55 → SAT 21:03AA 546 5h 24m 53% 35%
SouthwestDetails → MIA 17:00 → DAL 19:00WN 1374 55m Dallas DAL 19:55 → SAT 21:00WN 4415 5h 00m 45% 29%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON