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Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 647 at 21:05, with a 32% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 647 American Flight history → MIA 21:05 SDF 23:42 32% 14% 1.1% 55%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Louisville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → MIA 06:20 → BWI 08:55WN 974 1h 50m Baltimore BWI 10:45 → SDF 12:30WN 1297 6h 10m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249 2h 29m Atlanta ATL 10:30 → SDF 11:51DL 1481 5h 51m 99% 89%
AmericanDetails → MIA 05:25 → DFW 07:40AA 1226 1h 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:31 → SDF 12:48AA 3791 · flown by Envoy 7h 23m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:25 → LGA 09:24DL 2387 1h 41m New York LGA 11:05 → SDF 13:27DL 5637 · flown by Republic 7h 02m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → MIA 13:38 → DTW 16:53DL 1468 2h 52m Detroit DTW 19:45 → SDF 21:12DL 5832 · flown by Republic 7h 34m 98% 83%
AmericanDetails → MIA 13:42 → DCA 16:26AA 3310 3h 19m Washington DCA 19:45 → SDF 21:40AA 4672 · flown by Republic 7h 58m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836 1h 34m Atlanta ATL 14:22 → SDF 15:42DL 3195 5h 02m 95% 82%
AmericanDetails → MIA 09:00 → DFW 11:12AA 1227 3h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:17 → SDF 17:30AA 4152 · flown by Envoy 8h 30m 98% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MIA 12:22 → ORD 14:58AA 2910 53m Chicago ORD 15:51 → SDF 18:27AA 4668 · flown by Republic 6h 05m 73% 61%
AmericanDetails → MIA 16:45 → PHL 19:41AA 1871 57m Philadelphia PHL 20:38 → SDF 23:03AA 4466 · flown by Republic 6h 18m 67% 57%
SouthwestDetails → MIA 18:50 → BWI 21:30WN 1624 1h 10m Baltimore BWI 22:40 → SDF 00:30 +1WN 156 5h 40m 64% 49%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON