Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 654 at 08:20 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–34%.

Safest bet that day AA 654 MIA 08:20 → SEA 11:56 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AS 305 MIA 18:20 → SEA 22:00 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 654 American Flight history →	MIA 08:20	SEA 11:56	12%	4%	0.8%	94%
DL 506 Delta Flight history →	MIA 18:26	SEA 22:10	31%	12%	1.2%	60%
AA 3252 American Flight history →	MIA 20:35	SEA 00:07	33%	10%	1.4%	64%
AS 305 Alaska Flight history →	MIA 18:20	SEA 22:00	34%	10%	1.3%	69%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	MIA 06:35 → MSP 09:25DL 1056	1h 45m Minneapolis	MSP 11:10 → SEA 13:00DL 889	9h 25m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249	1h 49m Atlanta	ATL 09:50 → SEA 12:13DL 774	9h 13m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	MIA 07:10 → ATL 09:10DL 1211	2h 00m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → SEA 13:35DL 648	9h 25m	98%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON