Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: UA 1257 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 36–41%.

Safest bet that day UA 1257 MIA 08:00 → SFO 11:03 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 2426 MIA 20:35 → SFO 23:33 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1257 United Flight history →	MIA 08:00	SFO 11:03	15%	5%	0.7%	90%
AA 2565 American Flight history →	MIA 07:20	SFO 10:24	15%	5%	0.8%	93%
UA 2810 United Flight history →	MIA 18:35	SFO 21:41	36%	13%	0.8%	22%
AA 2035 American Flight history →	MIA 17:15	SFO 20:20	40%	14%	0.9%	53%
AA 2799 American Flight history →	MIA 19:30	SFO 22:34	40%	14%	1.0%	33%
AA 2426 American Flight history →	MIA 20:35	SFO 23:33	41%	13%	1.1%	56%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	MIA 07:37 → DEN 10:00UA 2045	1h 21m Denver	DEN 11:21 → SFO 13:04UA 1561	8h 27m	95%	75%
Delta Details →	MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249	1h 39m Atlanta	ATL 09:40 → SFO 11:33DL 672	8h 33m	97%	75%
United Details →	MIA 06:30 → IAH 08:24UA 2606	1h 11m Houston	IAH 09:35 → SFO 11:35UA 2358	8h 05m	100%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON