Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 06:55, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching San Jose on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 52% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 3 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MIA 06:55 → SLC 09:56DL 2021	1h 44m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:40 → SJC 12:35DL 1254	8h 40m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249	1h 42m Atlanta	ATL 09:43 → SJC 11:30DL 809	8h 30m	97%	85%
United Details →	MIA 06:30 → IAH 08:24UA 2606	1h 36m Houston	IAH 10:00 → SJC 12:03UA 1882	8h 33m	100%	85%
United Details →	MIA 07:37 → DEN 10:00UA 2045	1h 45m Denver	DEN 11:45 → SJC 13:24UA 2808	8h 47m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	MIA 12:02 → ATL 14:05DL 1510	2h 54m Atlanta	ATL 16:59 → SJC 18:52DL 2136	9h 50m	97%	80%
American Details →	MIA 05:25 → DFW 07:40AA 1226	1h 35m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:15 → SJC 10:49AA 2572	8h 24m	96%	79%
Delta Details →	MIA 16:00 → ATL 18:25DL 1579	2h 34m Atlanta	ATL 20:59 → SJC 22:49DL 933	9h 49m	95%	79%
Southwest Details →	MIA 06:20 → BWI 08:55WN 974	3h 55m Baltimore	BWI 12:50 → SJC 15:25WN 186	12h 05m	100%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	MIA 09:00 → DFW 11:12AA 1227	48m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:00 → SJC 13:33AA 436	7h 33m	72%	57%
Delta Details →	MIA 14:42 → MSP 17:40DL 2129	50m Minneapolis	MSP 18:30 → SJC 20:35DL 2087	8h 53m	66%	52%
Delta Details →	MIA 14:09 → ATL 16:13DL 1332	46m Atlanta	ATL 16:59 → SJC 18:52DL 2136	7h 43m	52%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON