Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 3001 at 07:02 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 3001 MIA 07:02 → SJU 09:45 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest F9 3378 MIA 21:33 → SJU 00:28 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3001 American Flight history →	MIA 07:02	SJU 09:45	8%	4%	1.0%	96%
AA 2582 American Flight history →	MIA 08:20	SJU 11:04	11%	5%	0.9%	94%
AA 2584 American Flight history →	MIA 11:17	SJU 14:12	15%	8%	1.1%	92%
AA 2581 American Flight history →	MIA 13:03	SJU 15:47	25%	12%	4.3%	82%
AA 1364 American Flight history →	MIA 19:16	SJU 21:59	27%	13%	1.5%	66%
AA 3165 American Flight history →	MIA 15:40	SJU 18:24	27%	15%	4.6%	74%
F9 3378 Frontier Flight history →	MIA 21:33	SJU 00:28	33%	18%	2.2%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON