Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 2021 at 06:55 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–34%.

Safest bet that day DL 2021 MIA 06:55 → SLC 09:56 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest AA 1134 MIA 20:42 → SLC 23:37 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2021 Delta Flight history →	MIA 06:55	SLC 09:56	7%	3%	0.9%	80%
AA 483 American Flight history →	MIA 09:50	SLC 12:40	16%	5%	0.8%	82%
AA 1134 American Flight history →	MIA 20:42	SLC 23:37	34%	10%	1.2%	65%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	MIA 07:10 → ATL 09:10DL 1211	1h 00m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → SLC 12:10DL 387	7h 00m	92%	82%
Delta Details →	MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836	1h 07m Atlanta	ATL 13:55 → SLC 15:51DL 423	7h 11m	90%	74%
American Details →	MIA 05:25 → DFW 07:40AA 1226	56m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:36 → SLC 10:22AA 2607	6h 57m	89%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON