tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: United via Bush, leaving 06:30, is the safest bet: 85% chance of reaching Santa Ana on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 52% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → MIA 06:30 → IAH 08:24UA 2606 1h 06m Houston IAH 09:30 → SNA 10:59UA 1383 7h 29m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → MIA 07:37 → DEN 10:00UA 2045 3h 25m Denver DEN 13:25 → SNA 14:57UA 1707 10h 20m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:35 → MSP 09:25DL 1056 1h 35m Minneapolis MSP 11:00 → SNA 12:54DL 2081 9h 19m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → MIA 11:12 → EWR 14:23UA 2080 2h 37m Newark EWR 17:00 → SNA 20:06UA 1690 11h 54m 100% 81%
AmericanDetails → MIA 05:25 → DFW 07:40AA 1226 2h 00m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:40 → SNA 10:48AA 2672 8h 23m 98% 80%
UnitedDetails → MIA 08:48 → EWR 11:54UA 408 2h 35m Newark EWR 14:29 → SNA 17:18UA 1350 11h 30m 98% 80%
AmericanDetails → MIA 07:00 → DFW 09:19AA 2575 3h 04m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:23 → SNA 13:31AA 2684 9h 31m 99% 80%
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249 2h 59m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → SNA 12:31DL 329 9h 31m 99% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MIA 16:10 → ORD 18:53UA 2106 52m Chicago ORD 19:45 → SNA 22:19UA 308 9h 09m 62% 51%
DeltaDetails → MIA 14:42 → MSP 17:40DL 2129 48m Minneapolis MSP 18:28 → SNA 20:20DL 2107 8h 38m 63% 48%
UnitedDetails → MIA 15:44 → DEN 18:23UA 2852 47m Denver DEN 19:10 → SNA 20:40UA 1704 7h 56m 52% 42%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON