Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 4071 at 22:54, with a 28% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 4071 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MIA 22:54	SRQ 23:59	28%	7%	15.9%	85%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sarasota/Bradenton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249	2h 04m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → SRQ 11:44DL 3104	5h 44m	98%	72%
Delta Details →	MIA 07:10 → ATL 09:10DL 1211	3h 30m Atlanta	ATL 12:40 → SRQ 14:13DL 2438	7h 03m	99%	71%
Delta Details →	MIA 18:00 → ATL 20:14DL 1386	2h 53m Atlanta	ATL 23:07 → SRQ 00:45 +1DL 2997	6h 45m	96%	68%
Delta Details →	MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836	2h 50m Atlanta	ATL 15:38 → SRQ 17:17DL 3109	6h 37m	97%	66%
Delta Details →	MIA 12:02 → ATL 14:05DL 1510	3h 10m Atlanta	ATL 17:15 → SRQ 18:53DL 3115	6h 51m	98%	66%
Delta Details →	MIA 06:25 → LGA 09:24DL 2387	1h 04m New York	LGA 10:28 → SRQ 13:33DL 2412	7h 08m	94%	65%
Delta Details →	MIA 16:00 → ATL 18:25DL 1579	2h 50m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → SRQ 22:52DL 1057	6h 52m	95%	65%
American Details →	MIA 09:55 → CLT 12:05AA 840	2h 46m Charlotte	CLT 14:51 → SRQ 16:48AA 5627 · flown by PSA	6h 53m	100%	62%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MIA 18:00 → ATL 20:14DL 1386	1h 01m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → SRQ 22:52DL 1057	4h 52m	71%	48%
Delta Details →	MIA 14:09 → ATL 16:13DL 1332	1h 02m Atlanta	ATL 17:15 → SRQ 18:53DL 3115	4h 44m	71%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON