tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 20–29% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 2744 American Flight history → MIA 10:07 STT 12:59 20% 6% 1.7% 88%
AA 2738 American Flight history → MIA 13:08 STT 16:00 29% 12% 4.2% 83%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte Amalie on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → MIA 06:30 → IAH 08:24UA 2606 1h 28m Houston IAH 09:52 → STT 15:43UA 1908 9h 13m 100% 85%
AmericanDetails → MIA 06:21 → CLT 08:35AA 2187 1h 22m Charlotte CLT 09:57 → STT 13:48AA 2432 7h 27m 95% 80%
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249 2h 34m Atlanta ATL 10:35 → STT 14:23DL 1902 8h 23m 99% 80%
DeltaDetails → MIA 07:10 → ATL 09:10DL 1211 2h 25m Atlanta ATL 11:35 → STT 15:20DL 1889 8h 10m 98% 78%
AmericanDetails → MIA 05:25 → DFW 07:40AA 1226 2h 25m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:05 → STT 16:11AA 2943 10h 46m 99% 75%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON