Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 2778 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–44%.

Safest bet that day AA 2778 MIA 07:00 → TPA 08:08 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 1921 MIA 20:48 → TPA 21:57 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2778 American Flight history →	MIA 07:00	TPA 08:08	9%	3%	16.3%	92%
AA 2781 American Flight history →	MIA 08:05	TPA 09:13	15%	4%	16.8%	83%
AA 2831 American Flight history →	MIA 12:00	TPA 13:14	24%	9%	18.8%	72%
AA 3555 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MIA 17:40	TPA 18:52	31%	8%	12.2%	71%
AA 1714 American Flight history →	MIA 23:13	TPA 00:19	35%	11%	10.1%	71%
AA 2987 American Flight history →	MIA 15:41	TPA 16:53	40%	16%	20.3%	49%
AA 3188 American Flight history →	MIA 22:09	TPA 23:15	40%	14%	6.7%	48%
AA 1921 American Flight history →	MIA 20:48	TPA 21:57	44%	14%	15.8%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON