tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 12:02, is the safest bet: 55% chance of reaching Tulsa on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 55% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 3380 American flown by Envoy Flight history → MIA 21:25 TUL 23:43 20% 5% 0.9% 84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tulsa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tulsa is 1 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249 2h 59m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → TUL 11:56DL 2620 6h 56m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → MIA 05:25 → DFW 07:40AA 1226 3h 26m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 11:06 → TUL 12:18AA 3829 · flown by Envoy 7h 53m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → MIA 06:30 → IAH 08:24UA 2606 3h 31m Houston IAH 11:55 → TUL 13:36UA 5413 · flown by SkyWest 8h 06m 100% 84%
AmericanDetails → MIA 06:21 → CLT 08:35AA 2187 2h 55m Charlotte CLT 11:30 → TUL 12:59AA 2853 7h 38m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → MIA 08:48 → IAH 10:42UA 2417 3h 53m Houston IAH 14:35 → TUL 16:15UA 4239 · flown by CommuteAir 8h 27m 100% 81%
DeltaDetails → MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836 2h 07m Atlanta ATL 14:55 → TUL 15:53DL 1186 6h 13m 97% 80%
UnitedDetails → MIA 16:53 → IAH 18:56UA 1216 2h 46m Houston IAH 21:42 → TUL 23:15UA 6179 · flown by Mesa 7h 22m 95% 79%
AmericanDetails → MIA 11:00 → DFW 13:15AA 3055 3h 36m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 16:51 → TUL 18:03AA 4133 · flown by Envoy 8h 03m 99% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MIA 19:30 → DFW 21:45AA 3104 53m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:38 → TUL 23:47AA 531 5h 17m 60% 43%
DeltaDetails → MIA 14:09 → ATL 16:13DL 1332 48m Atlanta ATL 17:01 → TUL 18:04DL 2837 4h 55m 55% 43%
SouthwestDetails → MIA 16:20 → DEN 18:40WN 2926 1h 15m Denver DEN 19:55 → TUL 22:40WN 1764 7h 20m 58% 39%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON