Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 2716 at 21:45, with a 30% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 2716 American Flight history →	MIA 21:45	TYS 23:59	30%	10%	1.5%	43%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Knoxville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249	2h 09m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → TYS 11:10DL 1743	5h 10m	98%	87%
Delta Details →	MIA 08:20 → ATL 10:20DL 1261	3h 32m Atlanta	ATL 13:52 → TYS 14:48DL 1148	6h 28m	99%	83%
American Details →	MIA 09:55 → CLT 12:05AA 840	2h 19m Charlotte	CLT 14:24 → TYS 15:42AA 5831 · flown by Piedmont	5h 47m	100%	81%
American Details →	MIA 05:25 → DFW 07:40AA 1226	2h 05m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:45 → TYS 12:53AA 2873	7h 28m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	MIA 07:10 → ATL 09:10DL 1211	3h 07m Atlanta	ATL 12:17 → TYS 13:16DL 4724 · flown by Endeavor	6h 09m	99%	78%
Delta Details →	MIA 12:02 → ATL 14:05DL 1510	3h 40m Atlanta	ATL 17:45 → TYS 18:44DL 3042	6h 42m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836	3h 28m Atlanta	ATL 16:16 → TYS 17:16DL 2571	6h 36m	98%	78%
American Details →	MIA 06:00 → DCA 08:41AA 491	1h 17m Washington	DCA 09:58 → TYS 11:45AA 5647 · flown by PSA	5h 45m	95%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	MIA 16:53 → IAH 18:56UA 1216	54m Houston	IAH 19:50 → TYS 23:12UA 6206 · flown by Mesa	6h 19m	65%	47%
American Details →	MIA 17:23 → CLT 19:45AA 400	50m Charlotte	CLT 20:35 → TYS 21:58AA 5909 · flown by Piedmont	4h 33m	67%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON