Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 4300 at 23:10, with a 22% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 4300 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MIA 23:10	VPS 23:59	22%	5%	1.2%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Valparaiso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Valparaiso is 1 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MIA 06:00 → ATL 08:01DL 1249	2h 14m Atlanta	ATL 10:15 → VPS 10:29DL 2048	5h 29m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	MIA 07:10 → ATL 09:10DL 1211	3h 10m Atlanta	ATL 12:20 → VPS 12:29DL 3092	6h 19m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	MIA 08:20 → ATL 10:20DL 1261	3h 30m Atlanta	ATL 13:50 → VPS 14:00DL 2832	6h 40m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	MIA 06:35 → MSP 09:25DL 1056	1h 10m Minneapolis	MSP 10:35 → VPS 13:13DL 2462	7h 38m	96%	87%
Southwest Details →	MIA 06:20 → BWI 08:55WN 974	3h 05m Baltimore	BWI 12:00 → VPS 13:20WN 246	8h 00m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	MIA 10:40 → ATL 12:48DL 2836	3h 17m Atlanta	ATL 16:05 → VPS 16:21DL 3083	6h 41m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	MIA 18:00 → ATL 20:14DL 1386	3h 01m Atlanta	ATL 23:15 → VPS 23:29DL 3097	6h 29m	96%	82%
American Details →	MIA 06:21 → CLT 08:35AA 2187	2h 46m Charlotte	CLT 11:21 → VPS 12:02AA 2671	6h 41m	99%	82%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	MIA 17:30 → DFW 19:56AA 3260	1h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:10 → VPS 23:08AA 1201	6h 38m	73%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON