Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, AA 4049 at 21:13, with a 23% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 4049 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	MIA 21:13	XNA 23:20	23%	6%	1.4%	82%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fayetteville/Springdale/ on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fayetteville/Springdale/ is 1 h behind Miami). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	MIA 05:25 → DFW 07:40AA 1226	1h 24m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:04 → XNA 10:24AA 3838 · flown by Envoy	5h 59m	96%	86%
American Details →	MIA 07:00 → DFW 09:19AA 2575	3h 17m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:36 → XNA 13:57AA 3847 · flown by Envoy	7h 57m	99%	86%
United Details →	MIA 06:30 → IAH 08:24UA 2606	1h 11m Houston	IAH 09:35 → XNA 11:12UA 4297 · flown by CommuteAir	5h 42m	100%	85%
United Details →	MIA 08:48 → IAH 10:42UA 2417	3h 50m Houston	IAH 14:32 → XNA 16:15UA 4062 · flown by Mesa	8h 27m	100%	85%
American Details →	MIA 06:40 → ORD 09:08AA 581	2h 37m Chicago	ORD 11:45 → XNA 13:41AA 3848 · flown by Envoy	8h 01m	99%	85%
American Details →	MIA 06:21 → CLT 08:35AA 2187	3h 09m Charlotte	CLT 11:44 → XNA 13:12AA 5444 · flown by PSA	7h 51m	99%	85%
American Details →	MIA 09:00 → DFW 11:12AA 1227	2h 54m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:06 → XNA 15:27AA 3840 · flown by Envoy	7h 27m	97%	84%
American Details →	MIA 08:40 → LGA 11:43AA 1046	1h 57m New York	LGA 13:40 → XNA 16:08AA 4524 · flown by Republic	8h 28m	97%	83%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	MIA 11:00 → DFW 13:15AA 3055	51m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:06 → XNA 15:27AA 3840 · flown by Envoy	5h 27m	68%	58%
American Details →	MIA 14:25 → LAX 16:52AA 778	57m Los Angeles	LAX 17:49 → XNA 23:17AA 6187 · flown by SkyWest	9h 52m	68%	55%
American Details →	MIA 16:39 → DFW 19:04AA 2823	53m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:57 → XNA 21:20AA 4101 · flown by Envoy	5h 41m	56%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON