tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 4866 at 06:00, with a 5% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 4866 Southwest Flight history → MKE 06:00 AUS 08:40 5% 1% 0.6% 85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → MKE 05:40 → MDW 06:30WN 3178 3h 10m Chicago MDW 09:40 → AUS 12:15WN 2727 6h 35m 100% 89%
SouthwestDetails → MKE 05:25 → PHX 07:05WN 2954 1h 20m Phoenix PHX 08:25 → AUS 12:45WN 4744 7h 20m 100% 88%
SouthwestDetails → MKE 05:15 → DEN 06:50WN 2942 3h 10m Denver DEN 10:00 → AUS 13:20WN 2263 8h 05m 100% 86%
DeltaDetails → MKE 06:30 → MSP 07:55DL 4460 · flown by SkyWest 2h 15m Minneapolis MSP 10:10 → AUS 12:50DL 2062 6h 20m 98% 86%
UnitedDetails → MKE 05:00 → ORD 05:59UA 5799 · flown by SkyWest 3h 02m Chicago ORD 09:01 → AUS 11:59UA 1688 6h 59m 98% 86%
SouthwestDetails → MKE 07:40 → BNA 09:10WN 4598 2h 20m Nashville BNA 11:30 → AUS 13:40WN 450 6h 00m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → MKE 06:14 → EWR 09:35UA 3470 · flown by Republic 2h 45m Newark EWR 12:20 → AUS 15:16UA 1155 9h 02m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → MKE 05:45 → ATL 08:46DL 1221 2h 19m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → AUS 12:25DL 2011 6h 40m 98% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → MKE 13:22 → DTW 15:38DL 5476 · flown by Endeavor 57m Detroit DTW 16:35 → AUS 18:41DL 1612 5h 19m 67% 53%
AmericanDetails → MKE 18:55 → ORD 20:29AA 6211 · flown by SkyWest 47m Chicago ORD 21:16 → AUS 23:59AA 935 5h 04m 55% 38%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON