Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4598 at 07:40 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 7–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 4598 MKE 07:40 → BNA 09:10 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest WN 1369 MKE 16:30 → BNA 18:00 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 19% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4598 Southwest Flight history →	MKE 07:40	BNA 09:10	6%	2%	0.6%	95%
WN 445 Southwest Flight history →	MKE 10:25	BNA 11:55	7%	2%	0.6%	90%
WN 1369 Southwest Flight history →	MKE 16:30	BNA 18:00	25%	7%	0.6%	19%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON