Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: one nonstop, WN 2939 at 10:05, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2939 Southwest Flight history →	MKE 10:05	DAL 12:25	7%	2%	0.6%	88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	MKE 05:15 → DEN 06:50WN 2942	1h 55m Denver	DEN 08:45 → DAL 11:40WN 1360	6h 25m	100%	92%
Southwest Details →	MKE 07:40 → BNA 09:10WN 4598	3h 10m Nashville	BNA 12:20 → DAL 14:15WN 5046	6h 35m	100%	87%
Southwest Details →	MKE 05:40 → MDW 06:30WN 3178	3h 30m Chicago	MDW 10:00 → DAL 12:15WN 1487	6h 35m	100%	86%
Southwest Details →	MKE 07:20 → STL 08:40WN 2327	1h 05m St Louis	STL 09:45 → DAL 11:25WN 4196	4h 05m	95%	86%
Delta Details →	MKE 05:45 → ATL 08:46DL 1221	1h 29m Atlanta	ATL 10:15 → DAL 11:24DL 1115	5h 39m	98%	84%
Southwest Details →	MKE 05:25 → PHX 07:05WN 2954	55m Phoenix	PHX 08:00 → DAL 12:25WN 875	7h 00m	93%	83%
Southwest Details →	MKE 06:00 → AUS 08:40WN 4866	3h 30m Austin	AUS 12:10 → DAL 13:15WN 910	7h 15m	100%	82%
Southwest Details →	MKE 10:25 → BNA 11:55WN 445	1h 40m Nashville	BNA 13:35 → DAL 15:30WN 488	5h 05m	100%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	MKE 16:30 → BNA 18:00WN 1369	55m Nashville	BNA 18:55 → DAL 20:50WN 490	4h 20m	71%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON