Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 311 at 08:15 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 9–26%.

Safest bet that day WN 311 MKE 08:15 → DCA 11:00 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 2941 MKE 17:30 → DCA 20:25 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 43% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 311 Southwest Flight history →	MKE 08:15	DCA 11:00	9%	3%	0.6%	90%
AA 5646 American flown by PSA Flight history →	MKE 06:00	DCA 09:11	9%	4%	1.4%	84%
AA 5286 American flown by PSA Flight history →	MKE 13:04	DCA 16:12	19%	7%	1.7%	61%
WN 2941 Southwest Flight history →	MKE 17:30	DCA 20:25	26%	9%	0.6%	43%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON