Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2942 at 05:15 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 2942 MKE 05:15 → DEN 06:50 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest WN 3885 MKE 18:35 → DEN 20:20 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2942 Southwest Flight history →	MKE 05:15	DEN 06:50	3%	1%	0.5%	98%
WN 1450 Southwest Flight history →	MKE 09:10	DEN 10:40	8%	2%	0.5%	95%
WN 2944 Southwest Flight history →	MKE 10:25	DEN 11:55	11%	2%	0.5%	77%
UA 5536 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 10:44	DEN 12:33	12%	5%	0.5%	83%
UA 5558 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 08:16	DEN 10:05	13%	4%	0.5%	85%
UA 696 United Flight history →	MKE 14:35	DEN 16:21	16%	4%	0.5%	79%
UA 5544 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 17:46	DEN 19:45	20%	6%	0.6%	57%
WN 2945 Southwest Flight history →	MKE 13:50	DEN 15:20	22%	4%	0.5%	69%
WN 3885 Southwest Flight history →	MKE 18:35	DEN 20:20	24%	5%	0.5%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON