Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: WN 4197 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 19–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 4197 MKE 06:10 → LAS 08:00 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest WN 354 MKE 19:30 → LAS 21:20 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4197 Southwest Flight history →	MKE 06:10	LAS 08:00	5%	1%	0.6%	96%
WN 4659 Southwest Flight history →	MKE 11:45	LAS 13:30	19%	4%	0.5%	65%
WN 354 Southwest Flight history →	MKE 19:30	LAS 21:20	33%	8%	0.6%	58%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Southwest Details →	MKE 05:15 → DEN 06:50WN 2942	50m Denver	DEN 07:40 → LAS 08:35WN 1559	5h 20m	97%	90%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON