Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: DL 5625 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–20%.

Safest bet that day DL 5625 MKE 06:00 → LGA 09:15 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest DL 5825 MKE 17:50 → LGA 21:14 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5625 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	MKE 06:00	LGA 09:15	6%	3%	1.0%	89%
DL 5623 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	MKE 10:50	LGA 14:06	12%	5%	1.0%	78%
DL 5723 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	MKE 13:18	LGA 16:36	17%	6%	1.1%	82%
DL 5825 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	MKE 17:50	LGA 21:14	20%	10%	1.0%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON