tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 3178 at 05:40 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3178 Southwest Flight history → MKE 05:40 MDW 06:30 4% 1% 0.6% 98%
WN 2953 Southwest Flight history → MKE 17:15 MDW 18:05 26% 7% 0.6% 48%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → MKE 06:00 → AUS 08:40WN 4866 1h 45m Austin AUS 10:25 → MDW 12:55WN 4077 6h 55m 99% 88%
SouthwestDetails → MKE 07:40 → BNA 09:10WN 4598 1h 35m Nashville BNA 10:45 → MDW 12:20WN 575 4h 40m 96% 87%
DeltaDetails → MKE 05:45 → ATL 08:46DL 1221 2h 14m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → MDW 11:56DL 2417 6h 11m 98% 86%
SouthwestDetails → MKE 07:20 → STL 08:40WN 2327 4h 00m St Louis STL 12:40 → MDW 13:45WN 3344 6h 25m 99% 84%
SouthwestDetails → MKE 11:40 → MCI 13:10WN 1702 2h 55m Kansas City MCI 16:05 → MDW 17:30WN 9 5h 50m 100% 81%
DeltaDetails → MKE 10:11 → ATL 13:14DL 2999 2h 01m Atlanta ATL 15:15 → MDW 16:15DL 1728 6h 04m 98% 81%
SouthwestDetails → MKE 07:00 → BWI 09:50WN 2936 2h 40m Baltimore BWI 12:30 → MDW 13:30WN 435 6h 30m 96% 80%
DeltaDetails → MKE 14:59 → ATL 18:06DL 1246 3h 09m Atlanta ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076 7h 16m 99% 79%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON