Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 9–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 4460 MKE 06:30 → MSP 07:55 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest DL 2006 MKE 15:59 → MSP 17:21 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 4460 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 06:30	MSP 07:55	9%	4%	0.6%	84%
DL 4466 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 09:39	MSP 10:57	9%	4%	0.6%	75%
DL 4458 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 08:00	MSP 09:26	9%	4%	0.6%	89%
DL 561 Delta Flight history →	MKE 12:07	MSP 13:26	10%	3%	0.6%	89%
DL 4462 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 18:59	MSP 20:29	15%	5%	0.6%	83%
DL 2006 Delta Flight history →	MKE 15:59	MSP 17:21	17%	5%	0.6%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON