Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Fri, Oct 9: AA 6358 at 05:02 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–38%.

Safest bet that day AA 6358 MKE 05:02 → ORD 06:14 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest UA 5653 MKE 19:23 → ORD 20:29 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 26% on time

Every nonstop on Fri, Oct 9

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 6358 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 05:02	ORD 06:14	8%	4%	1.8%	89%
UA 5799 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 05:00	ORD 05:59	8%	4%	1.8%	81%
AA 4914 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 06:08	ORD 07:30	12%	5%	1.5%	83%
UA 5896 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 06:20	ORD 07:30	14%	5%	1.5%	89%
YX 4409 Republic	MKE 13:14	ORD 14:27	15%	5%	1.3%	no record
AA 6213 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 07:25	ORD 08:47	15%	6%	1.3%	80%
AA 6263 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 08:43	ORD 10:05	16%	6%	1.3%	86%
UA 5399 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 10:28	ORD 11:38	17%	7%	1.8%	79%
UA 5402 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 08:50	ORD 10:00	17%	6%	1.4%	74%
UA 4803 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 07:50	ORD 09:00	20%	6%	1.3%	78%
UA 4748 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 13:30	ORD 14:40	27%	9%	1.3%	64%
UA 4726 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 15:11	ORD 16:22	30%	10%	1.4%	60%
AA 6211 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 18:55	ORD 20:29	35%	10%	1.4%	53%
UA 5653 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	MKE 19:23	ORD 20:29	38%	9%	1.6%	26%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON