Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:30, is the safest bet: 79% chance of reaching San Diego on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 64% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2956 Southwest Flight history →	MKE 14:30	SAN 16:40	27%	5%	0.6%	86%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 2 h behind Milwaukee). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	MKE 05:15 → DEN 06:50WN 2942	1h 25m Denver	DEN 08:15 → SAN 09:40WN 1699	6h 25m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	MKE 06:30 → MSP 07:55DL 4460 · flown by SkyWest	3h 43m Minneapolis	MSP 11:38 → SAN 13:24DL 2125	8h 54m	99%	84%
United Details →	MKE 05:00 → ORD 05:59UA 5799 · flown by SkyWest	2h 47m Chicago	ORD 08:46 → SAN 11:21UA 660	8h 21m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	MKE 05:45 → ATL 08:46DL 1221	3h 04m Atlanta	ATL 11:50 → SAN 13:08DL 540	9h 23m	98%	82%
Southwest Details →	MKE 06:00 → AUS 08:40WN 4866	1h 25m Austin	AUS 10:05 → SAN 10:55WN 1435	6h 55m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	MKE 07:00 → SLC 09:25DL 2716	1h 45m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:10 → SAN 12:08DL 1296	7h 08m	97%	79%
Delta Details →	MKE 07:11 → DTW 09:30DL 3757 · flown by SkyWest	3h 00m Detroit	DTW 12:30 → SAN 14:09DL 2155	8h 58m	95%	79%
Southwest Details →	MKE 05:25 → PHX 07:05WN 2954	2h 10m Phoenix	PHX 09:15 → SAN 10:35WN 1677	7h 10m	100%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MKE 13:22 → DTW 15:38DL 5476 · flown by Endeavor	57m Detroit	DTW 16:35 → SAN 18:14DL 369	6h 52m	67%	52%
Southwest Details →	MKE 19:30 → LAS 21:20WN 354	55m Las Vegas	LAS 22:15 → SAN 23:30WN 2871	6h 00m	64%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON