Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:30, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Seattle on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 64% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 440 Alaska Flight history →	MKE 06:02	SEA 08:31	9%	2%	0.6%	92%
AS 507 Alaska Flight history →	MKE 14:59	SEA 17:24	19%	4%	0.6%	78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Seattle on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 2 h behind Milwaukee). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MKE 06:30 → MSP 07:55DL 4460 · flown by SkyWest	3h 15m Minneapolis	MSP 11:10 → SEA 13:00DL 889	8h 30m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	MKE 05:45 → ATL 08:46DL 1221	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 11:10 → SEA 13:35DL 648	9h 50m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	MKE 06:50 → ATL 09:57DL 1236	2h 36m Atlanta	ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629	10h 00m	99%	84%
American Details →	MKE 07:26 → PHX 09:05AA 2132	2h 27m Phoenix	PHX 11:32 → SEA 14:46AA 3440 · flown by Envoy	9h 20m	99%	82%
Southwest Details →	MKE 05:15 → DEN 06:50WN 2942	55m Denver	DEN 07:45 → SEA 09:45WN 1713	6h 30m	97%	82%
United Details →	MKE 05:00 → ORD 05:59UA 5799 · flown by SkyWest	2h 46m Chicago	ORD 08:45 → SEA 11:38UA 2099	8h 38m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	MKE 07:00 → SLC 09:25DL 2716	2h 10m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:35 → SEA 12:49DL 2995	7h 49m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	MKE 07:11 → DTW 09:30DL 3757 · flown by SkyWest	2h 59m Detroit	DTW 12:29 → SEA 14:29DL 728	9h 18m	95%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MKE 13:22 → DTW 15:38DL 5476 · flown by Endeavor	1h 08m Detroit	DTW 16:46 → SEA 18:42DL 944	7h 20m	69%	57%
Southwest Details →	MKE 18:35 → DEN 20:20WN 3885	50m Denver	DEN 21:10 → SEA 23:10WN 3856	6h 35m	69%	41%
Southwest Details →	MKE 19:30 → LAS 21:20WN 354	50m Las Vegas	LAS 22:10 → SEA 00:55 +1WN 963	7h 25m	64%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON