tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: WN 2327 at 07:20 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2327 Southwest Flight history → MKE 07:20 STL 08:40 5% 1% 0.5% 92%
WN 4661 Southwest Flight history → MKE 17:50 STL 19:10 26% 5% 0.5% 69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → MKE 05:40 → MDW 06:30WN 3178 1h 20m Chicago MDW 07:50 → STL 09:10WN 2900 3h 30m 100% 94%
DeltaDetails → MKE 05:45 → ATL 08:46DL 1221 2h 54m Atlanta ATL 11:40 → STL 12:17DL 566 6h 32m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → MKE 06:30 → MSP 07:55DL 4460 · flown by SkyWest 1h 00m Minneapolis MSP 08:55 → STL 10:28DL 3188 3h 58m 91% 84%
DeltaDetails → MKE 07:11 → DTW 09:30DL 3757 · flown by SkyWest 2h 58m Detroit DTW 12:28 → STL 13:05DL 1371 5h 54m 95% 84%
SouthwestDetails → MKE 07:40 → BNA 09:10WN 4598 3h 55m Nashville BNA 13:05 → STL 14:20WN 1371 6h 40m 100% 83%
UnitedDetails → MKE 05:00 → ORD 05:59UA 5799 · flown by SkyWest 1h 06m Chicago ORD 07:05 → STL 08:39UA 5958 · flown by SkyWest 3h 39m 94% 82%
UnitedDetails → MKE 06:20 → ORD 07:30UA 5896 · flown by SkyWest 3h 10m Chicago ORD 10:40 → STL 12:11UA 1355 5h 51m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → MKE 09:39 → MSP 10:57DL 4466 · flown by SkyWest 2h 39m Minneapolis MSP 13:36 → STL 15:13DL 4167 · flown by SkyWest 5h 34m 98% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → MKE 13:22 → DTW 15:38DL 5476 · flown by Endeavor 1h 02m Detroit DTW 16:40 → STL 17:19DL 2822 3h 57m 68% 57%
AmericanDetails → MKE 18:03 → PHL 21:10AA 710 49m Philadelphia PHL 21:59 → STL 23:32AA 1368 5h 29m 63% 51%
AmericanDetails → MKE 18:40 → DFW 21:17AA 2136 55m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:12 → STL 00:04 +1AA 3049 5h 24m 71% 50%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON