tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: UA 2754 at 05:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 2754 United Flight history → MRY 05:00 DEN 08:32 6% 2% 1.4% 86%
UA 4713 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → MRY 12:29 DEN 16:19 16% 6% 0.7% 91%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 1 h ahead of Monterey). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → MRY 13:54 → LAX 15:35UA 5523 · flown by SkyWest 3h 10m Los Angeles LAX 18:45 → DEN 22:15UA 2610 7h 21m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → MRY 07:05 → LAX 08:30UA 2655 2h 25m Los Angeles LAX 10:55 → DEN 14:27UA 2061 6h 22m 98% 83%
UnitedDetails → MRY 15:30 → SFO 16:28UA 4729 · flown by SkyWest 3h 28m San Francisco SFO 19:56 → DEN 23:43UA 2019 7h 13m 98% 82%
AlaskaDetails → MRY 15:05 → SAN 16:39AS 3221 · flown by SkyWest 3h 22m San Diego SAN 20:01 → DEN 23:30AS 1619 7h 25m 98% 76%
UnitedDetails → MRY 12:00 → SFO 12:56UA 5557 · flown by SkyWest 3h 14m San Francisco SFO 16:10 → DEN 20:01UA 1430 7h 01m 97% 73%
UnitedDetails → MRY 08:00 → SFO 08:56UA 5502 · flown by SkyWest 3h 47m San Francisco SFO 12:43 → DEN 16:35UA 540 7h 35m 97% 72%
AmericanDetails → MRY 16:14 → PHX 18:14AA 6268 · flown by SkyWest 3h 31m Phoenix PHX 21:45 → DEN 00:37 +1AA 3255 7h 23m 98% 71%
AmericanDetails → MRY 12:42 → DFW 18:25AA 2140 2h 04m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:29 → DEN 21:32AA 577 7h 50m 94% 58%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MRY 15:30 → SFO 16:28UA 4729 · flown by SkyWest 1h 02m San Francisco SFO 17:30 → DEN 21:28UA 1214 4h 58m 70% 56%
AmericanDetails → MRY 12:35 → PHX 14:31AA 3720 · flown by Envoy 53m Phoenix PHX 15:24 → DEN 18:16AA 1638 4h 41m 72% 49%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON