Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9: American via Phoenix, leaving 16:14, is the safest bet: 44% chance of reaching Dallas-Fort Worth on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 65% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AA 2140 American Flight history →	MRY 12:42	DFW 18:25	26%	8%	1.4%	71%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 2 h ahead of Monterey). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	MRY 05:00 → DEN 08:32UA 2754	1h 08m Denver	DEN 09:40 → DFW 12:48UA 355	5h 48m	94%	84%
United Details →	MRY 12:29 → DEN 16:19UA 4713 · flown by SkyWest	2h 34m Denver	DEN 18:53 → DFW 21:59UA 1565	7h 30m	97%	77%
American Details →	MRY 06:00 → PHX 07:57AA 6375 · flown by SkyWest	2h 34m Phoenix	PHX 10:31 → DFW 15:10AA 3284	7h 10m	97%	76%
United Details →	MRY 15:30 → SFO 16:28UA 4729 · flown by SkyWest	2h 22m San Francisco	SFO 18:50 → DFW 00:37 +1UA 2478	7h 07m	96%	76%
American Details →	MRY 12:35 → PHX 14:31AA 3720 · flown by Envoy	1h 44m Phoenix	PHX 16:15 → DFW 20:53AA 1663	6h 18m	100%	71%
American Details →	MRY 16:14 → PHX 18:14AA 6268 · flown by SkyWest	2h 07m Phoenix	PHX 20:21 → DFW 00:48 +1AA 2603	6h 34m	97%	68%
Alaska Details →	MRY 18:19 → SEA 20:35AS 2128 · flown by Horizon	2h 28m Seattle	SEA 23:03 → DFW 05:02 +1AS 542	8h 43m	98%	67%
Alaska Details →	MRY 06:00 → SAN 07:34AS 3384 · flown by SkyWest	2h 18m San Diego	SAN 09:52 → DFW 15:13AS 545	7h 13m	99%	67%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	MRY 08:00 → SFO 08:56UA 5502 · flown by SkyWest	1h 29m San Francisco	SFO 10:25 → DFW 16:08UA 2842	6h 08m	70%	50%
American Details →	MRY 16:14 → PHX 18:14AA 6268 · flown by SkyWest	46m Phoenix	PHX 19:00 → DFW 23:25AA 633	5h 11m	65%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON