tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Friday, October 9 · typical odds for a Friday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Fri, Oct 9 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 5523 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → MRY 13:54 LAX 15:35 12% 8% 0.8% 92%
UA 2655 United Flight history → MRY 07:05 LAX 08:30 12% 5% 0.9% 84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Los Angeles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → MRY 05:00 → DEN 08:32UA 2754 1h 30m Denver DEN 10:02 → LAX 11:34UA 405 6h 34m 99% 86%
AmericanDetails → MRY 06:00 → PHX 07:57AA 6375 · flown by SkyWest 2h 39m Phoenix PHX 10:36 → LAX 12:06AA 2869 6h 06m 97% 79%
UnitedDetails → MRY 12:29 → DEN 16:19UA 4713 · flown by SkyWest 1h 46m Denver DEN 18:05 → LAX 19:40UA 2240 7h 11m 94% 76%
UnitedDetails → MRY 15:30 → SFO 16:28UA 4729 · flown by SkyWest 3h 18m San Francisco SFO 19:46 → LAX 21:30UA 298 6h 00m 98% 73%
AmericanDetails → MRY 12:35 → PHX 14:31AA 3720 · flown by Envoy 2h 14m Phoenix PHX 16:45 → LAX 18:12AA 2930 5h 37m 100% 71%
UnitedDetails → MRY 12:00 → SFO 12:56UA 5557 · flown by SkyWest 3h 29m San Francisco SFO 16:25 → LAX 18:05UA 1754 6h 05m 97% 71%
UnitedDetails → MRY 08:00 → SFO 08:56UA 5502 · flown by SkyWest 3h 19m San Francisco SFO 12:15 → LAX 13:55UA 1506 5h 55m 97% 69%
AmericanDetails → MRY 16:14 → PHX 18:14AA 6268 · flown by SkyWest 2h 24m Phoenix PHX 20:38 → LAX 22:07AA 3204 5h 53m 97% 67%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MRY 08:00 → SFO 08:56UA 5502 · flown by SkyWest 1h 23m San Francisco SFO 10:19 → LAX 11:57UA 2367 3h 57m 68% 49%
UnitedDetails → MRY 12:00 → SFO 12:56UA 5557 · flown by SkyWest 59m San Francisco SFO 13:55 → LAX 15:35UA 2610 3h 35m 62% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Fri, Oct 9 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON